MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

November 2021 Economic Update

A Transitory Problem?

November 12, 2021

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Public Trust Trading Desk

Inflation continues to be front and center in the economic narrative with the reading for October continuing to add fuel to the fire; the consumer price index (CPI) month-over-month change came in at +0.9% while the year-over-year change came in at +6.2%, the highest annual pace since 1990. The increase in CPI was broad-based with energy, shelter, food, and used cars leading the way. Continued inflationary pressures will be a key metric to watch over the coming months as the market tries to assess whether higher inflation is transitory as the Federal Reserve expects or whether it is persistent and therefore demands action from the Fed.

Nonfarm payrolls rebounded in October, coming in at 531k jobs added versus expectations of 450k. Two-month net revisions were also positive at 235k, helping to offset weaker-than-expected readings for both August and September. The unemployment rate also beat expectations, coming in at 4.6%. This is an improvement of 0.2% from September and a vast improvement from the start of the year at 6.7%. While Chairman Powell indicated in his most recent press conference that we are still not at maximum employment, he stated that we could be on pace to hit maximum employment sometime next year if job gains remain strong.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the Federal Funds Target Rate stable at the November meeting, but they did announce that they will begin to taper asset purchases starting this month. To start, they will reduce the monthly pace of net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities in November and December. After December, the pace of tapering is variable and subject to economic conditions. The market currently anticipates that the FOMC will begin to raise the Federal Funds Target Rate in the second half of next year.

Current Economic Releases

DataPeriodValue
GDP QoQQ3 ’212.00%
US UnemploymentOct ’214.60%
ISM ManufacturingOct ’2160.80
PPI YoYOct ’2112.50%
CPI YoYOct ’216.20%
Fed Funds TargetNovember 12, 20210.00% – 0.25%

Treasury Yields

Maturity11/09/2110/08/21Change
3-Month0.041%0.046%-0.005%
6-Month0.056%0.056%0.000%
1-Year0.127%0.089%0.038%
2-Year0.421%0.318%0.103%
3-Year0.726%0.580%0.146%
5-Year1.081%1.060%0.021%
10-Year1.436%1.612%-0.176%
30-Year1.818%2.164%-0.346%

Agency Yields

Maturity11/09/2110/08/21Change
3-Month0.061%0.044%0.017%
6-Month0.075%0.055%0.020%
1-Year0.116%0.088%0.028%
2-Year0.439%0.316%0.123%
3-Year0.725%0.601%0.124%
5-Year1.097%1.061%0.036%

Commercial Paper (A1/P1)

Maturity11/09/2110/08/21Change
1-Month0.080%0.080%0.000%
3-Month0.140%0.100%0.040%
6-Month0.200%0.140%0.060%
9-Month0.250%0.160%0.090%

Disclaimer

Source: Bloomberg
Data unaudited. Many factors affect performance including changes in market conditions and interest rates and in response to other economic, political, or financial developments. Investment involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. No assurance can be given that the performance objectives of a given strategy will be achieved. All comments and discussions presented are purely based on opinion and assumptions, not fact. These assumptions may or may not be correct based on foreseen and unforeseen events. The information above is not a recommendation to buy, sell, implement, or change any securities or investment strategy, function, or process. Any financial and/or investment decision should be made only after considerable research, consideration, and involvement with an experienced professional engaged for the specific purpose. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Any financial and/or investment decision may incur losses.

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