MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

June 2020 Economic Update

The Reopening

June 11, 2020

   |   

Public Trust Trading Desk

Forging ahead, the U.S. economy is attempting to regain traction with all 50 states reopened in some capacity after shelter-in-place orders were put forth in March. Economic data continues to look dreadful, and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reported this month that the U.S. officially entered a recession in February, formally ending the record 128-month expansion that began in June 2009.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in June that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million in May, resulting in a decrease in the unemployment rate to 13.3% from the 14.7% reported in April. However, the BLS noted what the organization has called a “misclassification error,” whereby some people were listed as employed instead of unemployed. Given this error, the actual unemployment rate would have been 3% and 5% higher in May and April, respectively. Nonetheless, the trend and trajectory still show an otherwise unexpected and welcomed improvement.

On June 10, 2020, the Fed reiterated its commitment to deploying its extraordinary policy tools in supporting the U.S. economy. Moreover, the Fed signaled that it anticipates holding interest rates steady at near-zero through 2022 and forecasts the U.S. economy to contract by 6.5% and the unemployment rate to decline to 9.3% by year-end.

Globally, COVID-19 has amassed 7.3 million infections (2.0 million in the U.S.) with over 400k deaths, and there is still no vaccine available. Policymakers must continue to take precautionary measures regarding public health in addition to balancing out the economic crisis that many countries are facing across the globe

Current Economic Releases

DataPeriodValue
GDP QoQQ1 ’20-5.00%
US UnemploymentMay ’2013.30%
ISM ManufacturingMay ’2043.10
PPI YoYApr ’20-5.10%
CPI YoYMay ’200.10%
Fed Funds TargetJune 9, 20200.00% – 0.25%

Treasury Yields

Maturity06/09/2005/11/20Change
3-Month0.165%0.104%0.061%
6-Month0.183%0.145%0.038%
1-Year0.173%0.145%0.028%
2-Year0.202%0.175%0.028%
3-Year0.263%0.223%0.040%
5-Year0.401%0.351%0.050%
10-Year0.825%0.710%0.115%
30-Year1.576%1.416%0.160%

Agency Yields

Maturity06/09/2005/11/20Change
3-Month0.114%0.085%0.029%
6-Month0.199%0.176%0.023%
1-Year0.194%0.189%0.005%
2-Year0.259%0.237%0.022%
3-Year0.326%0.323%0.003%
5-Year0.560%0.571%-0.011%

Commercial Paper (A1/P1)

Maturity06/09/2005/11/20Change
1-Month0.130%0.140%-0.010%
3-Month0.210%0.250%-0.040%
6-Month0.300%0.370%-0.070%
9-Month0.410%0.430%-0.020%

Disclaimer

Source: Bloomberg
Data unaudited. Many factors affect performance including changes in market conditions and interest rates and in response to other economic, political, or financial developments. Investment involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. No assurance can be given that the performance objectives of a given strategy will be achieved. All comments and discussions presented are purely based on opinion and assumptions, not fact. These assumptions may or may not be correct based on foreseen and unforeseen events. The information above is not a recommendation to buy, sell, implement, or change any securities or investment strategy, function, or process. Any financial and/or investment decision should be made only after considerable research, consideration, and involvement with an experienced professional engaged for the specific purpose. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Any financial and/or investment decision may incur losses.

Previous Monthly Reports

05 - Monthly Economic Update

May 2020 Economic Update

As confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. more than doubled during April from 600k to over 1.3 million, economic data covering the early stages…

04 - Monthly Economic Update

April 2020 Economic Update

With over 600,000 confirmed cases across the country, the U.S. has become the epicenter of the global COVID-19 pandemic in just a few weeks’ time. The U.S. economy continues to…

03 - Monthly Economic Update

March 2020 Economic Update

COVID-19 (coronavirus) has rapidly spread across the globe after first emerging in central China in late 2019. The World Health Organization formally declared COVID-19…

Stay in the loop

 Sign up to receive perspectives on markets, investment strategies, and economic outlook advice.